Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 1.877945 1.963161 2.053199 2.155978 2.270766 2.395891 2.543822
2025-11-23 1.774658 1.883484 2.002522 2.143845 2.309074 2.498863 2.737639
2025-11-30 1.715724 1.841474 1.982664 2.155511 2.365278 2.617272 2.952766
2025-12-07 1.634380 1.766259 1.916748 2.104611 2.338251 2.627629 3.028803
2025-12-14 1.584999 1.724135 1.885397 2.090599 2.352155 2.686519 3.170763
2025-12-21 1.538385 1.682197 1.850981 2.069153 2.353031 2.725967 3.287706
2025-12-28 1.518983 1.671278 1.852709 2.091737 2.410807 2.844860 3.533905
2026-01-04 1.507248 1.668558 1.863622 2.125650 2.484901 2.992441 3.848019
2026-01-11 1.479133 1.644183 1.845799 2.120269 2.503720 3.060504 4.043123
2026-01-18 1.457640 1.627001 1.836007 2.124455 2.535416 3.149944 4.291760
2026-01-25 1.419658 1.587747 1.796208 2.085823 2.502458 3.134763 4.341673
2026-02-01 1.397457 1.567703 1.780454 2.079120 2.515399 3.193493 4.547200
2026-02-08 1.374443 1.546612 1.763422 2.071018 2.527490 3.255052 4.781274
2026-02-15 1.351837 1.525267 1.745146 2.060046 2.534064 3.307375 5.009235
2026-02-22 1.339134 1.516160 1.742565 2.070816 2.574356 3.422234 5.421351
2026-03-01 1.305572 1.479064 1.701293 2.024194 2.521222 3.363009 5.374070
2026-03-08 1.286187 1.460017 1.683815 2.011355 2.521263 3.401896 5.603678
2026-03-15 1.265256 1.438437 1.662263 1.991660 2.508967 3.416189 5.770344
2026-03-22 1.259899 1.437143 1.668185 2.012429 2.563860 3.565911 6.415390
2026-03-29 1.258363 1.440762 1.680821 2.043565 2.638147 3.765891 7.389530
2026-04-05 1.244688 1.427810 1.670003 2.038633 2.650186 3.837264 7.938417
2026-04-12 1.234526 1.419310 1.665116 2.042476 2.677641 3.946183 8.774901
2026-04-19 1.211936 1.393630 1.635457 2.007009 2.633262 3.887449 8.708860